The DRAM price hike wave is gaining momentum! EUV photomasks also pose a bottleneck: Samsung's memory production expansion is hindered

According to news from Kuai Technology on November 12th, amid surging demand for AI and persistently high memory prices, another key player has been added to the list of "culprits" behind the rise in DRAM prices.

According to reports, Japan's HOYA, the global leader in blank EUV photomasks, has informed Samsung Electronics that there is an upper limit to its production capacity in 2027, and it will not be able to meet the incremental demand resulting from Samsung's memory expansion. This means that the expansion plan for advanced DRAM will be forced to hit the brakes.

Blank EUV masks are the base substrate for EUV lithography masks, equivalent to the "negative" used by advanced lithography machines to pattern circuits. Hoya holds a market share of over 70% in this segment, making it an absolute oligopoly. As Samsung's DRAM shrinks to more advanced nodes such as 1c and 1d, the demand for photomasks is increasing exponentially.

The data is more intuitive. The number of single-wafer masks used in Samsung's DRAM will soar from 4 to 5 for the 1b process to about 10 for the 1d process.

According to Samsung's internal calculations, its consumption of blank EUV photomasks will maintain an annual growth rate of 25% over the next three years, with an estimated 5,500 photomasks to be consumed this year. However, ASML made it clear that other chip manufacturers are also scrambling for them, and it is simply not possible to increase the supply for Samsung alone.

The capacity shortfall cannot be resolved in the short term. Although Hoya has finalized plans to build a new plant in Singapore, its production capacity will not be available until FY2028, which will not help alleviate the situation in 2027. Against the backdrop of AI servers' insatiable demand for memory, bottlenecks in the supply of front-end materials will directly slow down the pace at which original manufacturers can ramp up their advanced production capacity, further supporting DRAM prices at high levels.

To ensure supply, Samsung is urgently seeking out South Korean domestic manufacturer S&S Tech as a replacement. However, entering the supply chain from the materials end requires a lengthy yield verification process, and it is difficult for a distant solution to address an immediate problem. For consumers, the obstruction of advanced DRAM capacity expansion means that expecting a short-term price drop in memory is likely just wishful thinking.

Source: MyDrivers (Fast Technology). Content is presented with source attribution. Read the original report.